Asian Handicap explained step by step with concrete examples
February 13, 2019 | In: Asian Handicap
What is Asian handicap? Asian Handicap: is a Indonesia-based bet that has become popular since 1998.
It’s about offering 2 options, each with 50% chances of success.
The Asian Handicap has emerged to offer equal bets when the difference between the opponents is significant.
Advantages and disadvantages are for both sides, bookmakers and bettors.
You will find out all about Asian handicap bets and how to use them to your advantage.
Asian handicap explained
Asian Handicap was introduced in sports betting to reduce sports like 3x (1 × 2) football to only two (1 and 2). Although there is a double chance, 1X, 12X2, these are not enough at times.
The basic idea is to only choose between two betting opportunities, 3 being too much.
Thus, two specialty terms have emerged and become popular: favorite and outsider. Favorite is the one that has the higher chances of winning, and the outsider is the team with the less chance of winning.
As for the decimal system of quotas, the closer the share is to @ 1.00, the more the favorite is more clear.
Apart from the two terms, there is still the notion of valuable betting. This is a number that is equal to the product of the quota and the mathematical probability of that event occurring.
Unfortunately, this mathematical equation has a great unknown and probability of betting success, which can only be approximated by the experience and skill of a bettor. When this number is greater than or equal to 1, the bet is valuable!
When there are two teams that are close together, the odds tend to be equal, perhaps with a small advantage to the hosts. In this case, any of the three signs has a value of over 2.70 – 2.80 even.
But what happens when the strength of the two teams is disproportionate and a team seems too strong?
Then the favorite has a lower multiplication factor, not so attractive to the public. At that point, the favorite starts with a negative Asian handicap, and it has to be more determined to beat the Asian bet.
The logic is simple enough: after much study on a match / group of matches, betting analysts set the value of this negative handicap for the favorite and positive for the outsider (equal, but the opposite sign!).
For a better understanding, here’s an example:
For Arsenal – Stoke, suppose Arsenal is at odds of 1.34. The English-friendly bet has a relatively low value, and in order to find a higher value, the homes set an Asian handicap.
For 1.34 odds, you can reach -1 / + 1 or even -1.5 / + 1.5. Thus, at -1 / + 1, Arsenal wins the bet if the team scores 2 or more goals and loses in the event of a draw or a defeat of any kind.
Stoke wins only at x2, ie in the case of draw or victory.
If Arsenal defeats a goal difference, the bet is void.
With the 1.5 goals limit, Arsenal wins to 2 or more goals, while Stoke wins at x2.
The difference between -1 and -1.5 is obvious, but the value of the odds differs depending on the risk, so for Arsenal (-1) you can have somewhere around 1.70-1.80, and for Arsenal (-1.5) we have over 1.95 – 2.10 .
Thus, Asian handicap is the moment when the favorite has equal chances with the outsider.
What is the philosophy of these bets and who has the advantage
It is known that the bookie has countless advantages over the simple bettor.
Starting with a high net statistical documentation, an army of people, up to the information inside the teams that are served at best in extremely difficult places (closed circuit forums), but usually only appear under the form of manipulation.
Apart from all these advantages, he shows his ace in his sleeve with a mathematical subtlety. More precisely, instead of respecting the probability math of a ratio of equal forces (50-50%), setting odds to 2.00-2.00, the bookie offers at best 1.91-1.91. It should be understood that this 9% we lose on every bet is a great source of revenue for betting houses. We have given this happy example where the odds are acceptable, let us say about 1.70-1.70 type ratios, how they can meet at events with 2 signs. Such relationships are by no means recommended, being a threshold almost impossible to overcome in the long run.
However, betting agents are also people and make little mistakes, or simply offer gifts from time to time. Thus, the moments when we can take advantage of their negligence are when setting the limit of wrong Asian handicap (less or higher than in reality) or by offering valuable odds. For these moments, it takes a lot of experience that the beginner bettors certainly do not have.